Stock Market Advice For My Son

 

Caribou

I've drawn your attention to VISA before, and will do so again.

It ranks #2 on this list and is cumulatively rated a "strong buy."

Kiplinger Magazine's Advice About Every Stock In The DOW Jones 30:  https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/blue-chip-stocks/602319/all-30-dow-jones-stocks-ranked-the-pros-weigh-in

But remember that a recession is brewing, and when it arrives, there will be a steep sell-off which, I think, is the time to buy.

Please read this as it is a crucial -- and factual -- underpinning to knowing when it's best to buy stocks if you want to be a "long-term" investor. 

The following article is important for making decisions about "when" to buy -- with the overarching recommendation being to "buy low and sell high," or as Warren Buffett puts it, "buy when others are fearful." (Buffett assumes, of course that you will buy stocks that are good values, NOT just any old stock which is "off its highs."

AI Overview

In the United States, economic recessions last an average of 10 to 11 months, whereas expansions last an average of about 64 months (or 5 to 6 years). Historically tracked by the National Bureau of Economic Research | NBER, business cycles vary significantly in length, meaning individual periods can differ widely from these averages. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

So, in order not to miss "the sell-off opportunity to buy low," I think that half a year into a recession is a good "trigger point" for buying manifestly good stocks that have been beaten down by "overall market sentiment."

AI Overview

"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful" is a famous maxim by investor Warren Buffett. It means you should practice contrarian investing by buying quality assets during market panics and taking profits or exercising caution when everyone else is blindly rushing in. 

Why It Works

• Capitalizing on Emotion: Market highs are often driven by the fear of missing out, while market crashes are driven by panic selling. This allows calm, disciplined investors to buy solid companies at a discount.
• Intrinsic Value: When emotions cause people to sell portfolios off blindly, the price of an asset drops sharply below its actual value. 

How to Apply the Strategy

• Do Your Research: It is a trigger to look for deals, not an excuse to buy failing companies. Focus on strong balance sheets and the long-term prospects of a business rather than short-term price drops. 
• Avoid Emotional Investing: When you act against the herd, you must override deeply ingrained human psychology and avoid panic selling when your portfolio is temporarily down. 
• Use Market Triggers: Monitor market fear indicators to gauge when to look for buying opportunities. 

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Further Exploration

• Discuss with the community how this timeless strategy is applied in the modern market on Reddit's Value Investing Thread.
• View and understand the historical wisdom directly from the Goodreads Buffett Quote Page. 

Dman 

https://share.google/aimode/BrTgyRdTIy6vkfiHm

Religion, Perfectionism And The Object Lesson Of Domincan Priest Girolamo Savonarola Who, By Popular Acclaim, Rose To Dictatorial Leadership In 15th Century Florence... And, 4 Years Later Was Burned At The Stake. (This Updated Post Was Originally Written In 2012)

    

Girolamo Savonarola by Fra Bartolomeo

Painted shortly before death at the stake in 1498

Savonarola is the case study par excellence of the suicidal righteousness of religious maniacs.

Savonarola's Wikipedia Entry:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Girolamo_Savonarola

(Savonarola is begging  for a play to be written about his rise and fall, perhaps, along the lines of "A Man For All Seasons." https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0060665/)

What role did Savonarola play in the development of Florence's Dictatorial Theocracy?

https://share.google/aimode/OBc50So6MlMkcQfLL

The True Believer

by Eric Hoffer

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_True_Believer

Free online PDF of The True Believer:

https://www.sustainable.soltechdesigns.com/The_True_Believer_-_Eric_Hoffer.pdf

In my view, this brief book on "the blindness of belief" is the most insightful analysis of how True Believers sacrifice everything -- even Reason... perhaps especially Reason -- on the altar of their beliefs, which they don't recognize as beliefs but assert as articles of absolute, incontrovertible knowledge.

Religion, Perfectionism, Savonarola and The Pending Apocalypse of The Republican Party (This Post, Now Updated, Was Originally Published In 2012)

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2020/09/savonarola-and-pending-apocalypse-of.html

Dear Giovanni,

Nothing would be more restorative to The Body Politic than widespread realization that democratic process is intrinsically compromised (and intrinsically compromising) and that all of us -- even "The Most Principled" -- are called to participate in less-than-perfect trade-offs.

Lacking this humility, The Body Politic will hurtle, ever faster, toward terminal decline. China is waiting in the wings, and as Air Force general friend, Arthur Clark, informed me: "China has more honors students that we have students.

Again: "The terrible thing about our time is precisely the ease with which theories can be put into practice.  The more perfect, the more idealistic the theories, the more dreadful is their realization.  We are at last beginning to rediscover what perhaps men knew better in very ancient times, in primitive times before utopias were thought of: that liberty is bound up with imperfection, and that limitations, imperfections, errors are not only unavoidable but also salutary. The best is not the ideal.  Where what is theoretically best is imposed on everyone as the norm, then there is no longer any room even to be good.  The best, imposed as a norm, becomes evil.”  Thomas Merton, Conjectures of a Guilty Bystander  

Merton: http://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2012/04/merton-best-imposed-as-norm-becomes.html

Merton's Wikipedia page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Merton

Life is not about perfection - at least not in the mathematical, geometrical sense that Americans (mistakenly) construe "perfection." ("Be ye perfect as your heavenly Father is perfect" would be more accurately translated: "Be ye complete as your heavenly Father is complete.")

Life is a muddle. 

And it is our station in life to muddle through to "something better" even if "better" proves (in the near term) nothing more than forfending decline. (In the long run, I envision ongoing Revelation that will bring about the replacement of humankind's "dominance-submission hierarchies" with even-handed enlightenment - social, intellectual, and spiritual. The Savonarolas of our world hold sway but briefly, and then their "too true to be good" preachments crash-and-burn because they are "too true to be good.")

As Italo-latinate cultures well know, our lives are not about mistaken notions of "mathematical" perfection. And when imperfect people insist on perfection, an unusually large load hits "the fan." 

Compendium Of Best Pax Posts On "Too Pure Principles" And The Collapse Of Conservatism

http://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2015/02/compendium-of-best-pax-posts-on-too.html

Religion and Perfectionism

http://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2013/11/religion-and-perfectionism.html

Read the following cautionary tale of Dominican priest Girolamo Savonarola, who - despite his "impeccable" personal life - brought disaster to 15th century Firenze.

Just four years after taking office, Savonarola's "righteous" rule of Florence crashed and burned, another "Bonfire of the Vanities" - this time his own.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Girolamo_Savonarola

At bottom, Savonarola evoked catastrophe by being "too true to be good." (No typo.)

You can only bang the bible so long - and so hard - before it becomes a weapon.

Then, as night follows day, bibliolatry lays waste to the First Commandment (and, in turn, all the rest of them).

.... if only by getting them into bed with Donald Trump, whom they elected not just once, but twice!!! 

... the second time after having lived with The Grotesquerie for four years!

I believe all  judgments made by people who are not only willing - but eager - to "sleep" with Donald Trump are unreliable. 

Such destructive ideologues are unable to make fundamentally sound judgments about ANY philosophical or theological issue.

The prissiness, presumption, and unfailing self-righteousness of Christian conservatives make them at least as dangerous as militant Islamists to whom they bear striking resemblance.

Christian Pharisees might wisely contemplate "The Woe Passages" - http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew%2023:%2013-39&version=NIV

Compendium: Christian Conservatism, Biblical Literalism And The Unique Hatred Of Yahweh's Command That ALL Men In Any Town Where Rebellious Children Live, MUST Stone Them To Death

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2024/02/compendium-christian-conservatism.html

"All" My Blog Posts Containing The Word "Jesus," Or The Word "Christ" -- Plus "A Theology In Memes"

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2025/09/all-my-blog-posts-containing-word-jesus.html

Pax on both houses

Alan

Fr. Thomas Merton Explains -- In 16 Words -- Why "Christian" "Conservatives" Are Always Wrong
https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2020/08/fr-thomas-merton-explains-in-16-words.html

"The terrible thing about our time is precisely the ease with which theories can be put into practice.  The more perfect, the more idealistic the theories, the more dreadful is their realization.  We are at last beginning to rediscover what perhaps men knew better in very ancient times, in primitive times before utopias were thought of: that liberty is bound up with imperfection, and that limitations, imperfections, errors are not only unavoidable but also salutary. The best is not the ideal.  Where what is theoretically best is imposed on everyone as the norm, then there is no longer any room even to be good.  The best, imposed as a norm, becomes evil.”  

"Conjectures of a Guilty Bystander,” by Trappist monk, Father Thomas Merton

"The best, imposed as a norm, becomes evil."

More Merton Quotes

http://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2012/04/merton-best-imposed-as-norm-becomes.html

A Letter To Karen, My Perverse, Mistaken Christian Nationalist Friend In Which I Probe The Error Of Her Ways

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2026/05/a-letter-to-karen-my-perverse-mistaken.html

"Commonweal," America's Premier Catholic Magazine (Owned And Edited By Catholic Lay People): "A Presidential Smash And Grab - The Most Corrupt President In U.S. History" (By Multiple Orders Of Magnitude)

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2026/05/commonweal-americas-premier-catholic.html

Archie Bunker (Carroll O'Connor) Cuts To The Quick: Trump Followers Are Fundamentally Unhappy, Joyless People Because They Harbor Core Beliefs That Are False. (And Although Of Less Importance, They Are, In Consequence, Desperate To Fault Anyone But Themselves)

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2025/10/archie-bunker-carroll-oconnor-cuts-to.html

Everything Jesus (And The Apostles) Had To Say About Rich People And Poor People

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2025/04/everything-jesus-and-apostles-had-to.html

The two links below present the Red Letter Bible.

By highlighting (in red) every word Jesus is purported to have spoken, we often have a necessary antidote to Gospel interpretations that can get lost in the narrative commentary.

So... 

While it can be helpful and enlightening to focus on the actual words ascribed to Jesus, there is no proof that Jesus' words have not been altered by oral tradition, scribal "insertions," and transcription error.

Please use "red letter editions" of the New Testament for the real benefits they make available.

But do not get carried away.

Perspective, proportion and deep contextualization are all indispensably important.

If God were actually supervising the literal transmission of "Inerrant Truth" in the original writing of bible texts, why did he not just "inscribe" the Literal Truth in the hearts of men. 

Notably, The Old Testament prophet Jeremiah (whence our English word, "jeremiad" meaning a righteous tirade) has this to say in Chapter 31, verse 33: "I will put my law within them, and I will write it on their hearts."

The Origins of the Red-Letter Bible

https://www.crossway.org/articles/red-letter-origin/?srsltid=AfmBOoqXcEDNRXMyYf7mfiB18GJ1UlTidM61fy_EujsMVCy7tAgQotIs

A Red Letter Version Of The King James Bible

https://wn.elib.com/Library/Religious/KJV/NR/NewTrl_index.html

A final counsel...

No understanding of the bible can even aspire to represent "the fullness of truth" without examining the writings of recently-retired, UNC-Chapel Hill Bible Studies professor Bart Ehrman.

Professor Bart Ehrman's Wikipedia Page

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bart_D._Ehrman

If people on the right side of the aisle had just one of Trump’s bizillion monstrosities to lay at the door of Joe Biden or Barack Obama, they would be livid perpetually - their jugulars pulsing purple as they continually clamor that these criminals be drawn-and-quartered on the National Mall, their dismembered bodies then jammed into gibbets over Pennsylvania Avenue to rot (and-bone-bleach) in perpetuity as "divine admonition" that The Lord God Almighty will - (in His Goodness) - send these Evil People to Hell where they will endure inconceivable torment without possibility of surcease or reformation FOREVER.

 

(Elodie, I can't find where on your Facebook page this new edition should be inserted. But here it is, nonetheless.)

I apologize for making so many corrections in yesterday's comment. Not only is it hard to do editorial work on a cellphone, but there is also the matter of "automatic spelling correction" which often bolluxes the correct spelling I "input" right at the beginning.

If people on the right side of the aisle had just one of Trump’s bizillion monstrosities to lay at the door of Joe Biden or Barack Obama, they would be livid perpetually - their jugulars pulsing purple as they continually clamor that these criminals be drawn-and-quartered on the National Mall, their dismembered bodies then jammed into gibbets over Pennsylvania Avenue to rot (and-bone-bleach) in perpetuity as "divine admonition" that The Lord God Almighty will - (in His Goodness) - send these Evil People to Hell where they will endure inconceivable torment, without possibility of surcease or reformation, FOREVER.

In reality, here is ALL America’s conservatives have got: Hunter Biden’s laptop, and Barack Obama having the temerity to wear a tan suit.

I invite persistent Trump supporters to weigh in with a countervailing argument.

Show us what you’ve got guys!

You would think the fact that these lickspittles don’t have ANY countervailing argument - and cannot even invent a rationale that isn’t laughable - would oblige them to glimpse the grotesque wrongness of their 12 year exercise in cheerful cruelty and giddy corruption.

Not so: https://share.google/aimode/ja7d4XPF7TpYRBAW5

I encourage you to read up on punctilious perfectionism as a moral and political danger.

Compendium Of Best Pax Posts On "Too Pure Principles," Perfectionism, And The Collapse Of Conservatism Into "Know-Nothing" Christian Nationalism
https://paxonbothhouses.blogspot.com/2026/06/compendium-of-best-pax-posts-on-too.html

"The terrible thing about our time is precisely the ease with which theories can be put into practice. The more perfect, the more idealistic the theories, the more dreadful is their realization. We are at last beginning to rediscover what perhaps men knew better in very ancient times, in primitive times before utopias were thought of: that liberty is bound up with imperfection, and that limitations, imperfections, errors are not only unavoidable but also salutary. The best is not the ideal. Where what is theoretically best is imposed on everyone as the norm, then there is no longer any room even to be good. The best, imposed as a norm, becomes evil.”

"Conjectures of a Guilty Bystander,” by Trappist monk, Father Thomas Merton

"The profoundest truths are paradoxical."Laozi (Lao Tze)

"You can safely assume you’ve created God in your own image when it turns out God hates all the same people you do."

Tom Weston S. J.

You Are Alive Today Because Two Russian Soldiers Had The Probity And Courage To Break The Chain Of Command: Stanislav Petrov And Vasily Arkhipov

 

Milley's Intervention: https://share.google/aimode/lB3sPOuCjFwPcjG4X

Israeli military historian, Martin van Creveld: https://share.google/aimode/2LpfZJ7lblwOs3RL5

Martin van Creveld is widely recognized as one of Israel's foremost military historians and strategists. A professor emeritus at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, he has authored more than twenty books on military history, including Supplying War and The Transformation of War, and has significantly influenced global military doctrine.  

*****

Two Soviet soldiers broke the chain of command to save the world from nuclear conflagration: 

Stanislav Petrov: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

Vasily Arkhipov: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov

*****

If You Do Nothing Else Today, Read The Following Opinions By Four U.S. Generals Hand-Picked By Trump To Be Part Of His Inner Circle

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2024/09/if-you-do-nothing-else-today-read.html

Retired Generals Say Prospect of Trump Immunity Is Nation’s ‘Greatest Threat’: Would They Be Obliged By Their Solemn Oath To "Support, Preserve And Protect The Constitution" To Perpetrate A Coup?

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2024/09/retired-generals-say-prospect-of-trump.html

"Make Your Bed": Admiral McRaven Leaves His TED Audience Speechless: What American Generals Think About "The National Security" Threat Who Lives In The White House

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2020/10/admiral-mcraven-leaves-audience.html

Looking At The Real Possibility Of American Generals And Admirals Banishing Trump From The White House

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2025/04/looking-at-real-possibility-of-american.html

Perhaps I should say, "By legal principle, we are accomplices to that massacre."

The Normalization Of Cruelty During Donald Trump's Administration: A Compendium  (Updated July 6, 2025)

http://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2023/02/the-normalization-of-cruelty-during.html

*****

The Bonus Round

Here Is My Advice To Trump's Would-Be Assassin, Cole Allen, On How To Defend Himself In Court. Allen Will Not Win His Case Any More Than Defendant, John Thomas Scopes, Could Have Won His Case In The Tennessee "Monkey Trial." But Cole Allen Can Turn The United States Upside Down By Obliging Its Citizenry To Undertake The Following Discussion

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2026/05/my-advice-to-trumps-would-be-assassin.html

How Conservatives Tell Big Lies By Shunning The Fullness Of Truth Found Only In Rich Contextualization

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2025/03/how-conservatives-tell-big-lies-by.html

Jon Ossoff's Exraordinary Speech In Atlanta, Georgia, May 31, 2026 (DO NOT miss Ossoff's healthcare assertion at the 19:36 mark, in which he compares Georgia with Lebanon)

 

Dear Jane

Jon Ossoff has never enthused me.

But the speech he gave in Atlanta the day before yesterday is quite remarkable.

Nicole Wallace even reviewed it on her television program.

It is a mini-miracle that Ossoff makes all the corruption - the ever-proliferating vility - "hang together."

And he doesn't just provide a depressing laundry list that leaves us enervated.

He makes all the malfeasance malevolently coherent - and he does so in a way that energizes us.

Ossoff still doesn't have much charisma, but he outdoes himself in this speech, providing an uplifting, incisive summary... every step of the way.

Jon Ossoff's Atlanta Speech: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tsCM7IhoiHQ

Don't miss Ossoff's healthcare assertion at the 19:36 mark, in which he compares Georgia with Lebanon.

Amazing!

Josh might want to echar un vistazo.

Shalom-Pax

Alan  

PS Thanks to lifelong friend Frances Vito for bringing this speech to my attention.

Short form of Rev. James Talarico's Sermon Against Christian Nationalism

https://x.com/Alex_Verveek/status/1820775522307056100

Long Form of Rev. Talarico's Sermon Against Christian Nationalism As A Betrayal Of Jesus of Nazareth

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2025/08/james-talaricos-sermon-against.html

Obama Approves Talarico --- Bob Dylan: "Let Us Stop Talking Falsely Now, The Hour's Getting Late"

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2026/03/obama-approves-talarico-bob-dylan-let.html