No, Biden Isn’t a New FDR, And This Isn’t a New Deal

Americans Need Perspective On How Transformational Socioeconomic Change Really Needs to Be

There’s a myth taking hold in America: Biden is a new FDR, and his proposals are a new New Deal. The Biden team, of course, is all too happy to let this myth circulate — and pundits, needing a fresh narrative after the disaster of the Trump years, are all too happy to spread it. The fact, though, is that it’s not true.

Americans sorely need perspective, so here’s a reality check.

Biden isn’t a new FDR, and his proposals aren’t remotely a new New Deal. I think that fact is crucial for every sensible, thinking American to understand. If it’s not obvious why, I’ll come to it in a moment. First, a few simple facts.

The New Deal was a truly historic wave of investment. How big was it? It was about half the entire economy — 40% of the 1929 economy, according to the most authoritative recent calculations. We can safely round that up to about 50%, because that estimate itself is very conservative.

How big is that, in modern terms? Today, America’s economy is about $20 trillion. A wave of investment on the scale of the New Deal would be about $10 trillion.

Biden’s infrastructure proposal comes in at about $2 trillion. That’s the proposal. Republicans have already countered with $800 billion, and they’re likely to succeed, because Democrats have already said they want Republican assent.

Let’s — realistically — imagine the final tally is $1 trillion. That’s just 10% of the way to a New Deal. Even if Democrats get what they proposed — which they won’t, since they don’t tend to fight very hard — and it ends up at $2 trillion, that’s still only 20% of the way to a new New Deal.

Do you see the gap between reality and myth here — how big it really is? Let me put it to you another way.

To approximate something remotely close to a New Deal, Biden would have to pass ten bills the size of the infrastructure bill. How likely do you think that is, given the fact that Republicans are dead set against just one?

Now consider the window of opportunity the Democrats have. They have about eighteen months left in charge of the House, Senate, and Presidency. That’s a bill the size of the infrastructure proposal every two months or so.

Does that sound remotely realistic to you? I didn’t think so.

So let me say it again. Biden isn’t a new FDR — and his proposals aren’t anywhere near the scale of a new New Deal yet.

Here’s why that matters. No, I’m not trying to be “negative” or “insult” Biden or anything of the sort.

I am simply trying to give you perspective, which is badly, badly missing in the American political discussion.

When pundits spread myths like “Biden is a new FDR! This is a new New Deal!!” Americans do something foolish: they tend to believe them. Worse, the very Americans that should be thinking critically tend to be seduced by such myths most.

In this case, it’s the well-meaning liberal. He or she, though it’s usually a he, wants to believe that Biden is a new FDR, and this is a new New Deal. It’s comforting. A nice thought. Grandpa Joe is here to fix everything. No more thinking required — only enthusiastic applause.

And so America’s liberal wing has descended into a kind of atmosphere of toxic groupthink. Criticism of Biden is seen as something beyond the pale. Hey, whose side are you really on?

Every American should all be thinking critically about Joe Biden. That isn’t some kind of insulting and mean and negative thing. It’s just the basic duty of a citizen in a democracy. It’s easier, of course, to swallow comfortable myths. But they don’t get you anywhere.

In this case, because liberals are happy to swallow the comfortable myth that Biden is a new FDR, and this is a new New Deal…guess what? They’re not pressuring him to do any better.

But who else could? The right wing? Of course not. Only the Democrat’s base of liberals can really pressure Biden to transform America. But if they’ve swallowed the FDR-New Deal myth, then all is well, and everything will be fine — so what pressure’s necessary? None is. All there is to do is applaud and cheer.

Facts are inconvenient things. Perspective can show us things we don’t want to see. In this case, the fact is that the New Deal was investment on a scale that dwarfs Biden’s proposals — so far. To get anywhere close will require much, much more — ambition on a whole different scale.

That’s constructive criticism. When I say that — as you should — I don’t mean that Biden shouldn’t do it, shouldn’t attempt it, should throw up his hands and walk away. I mean that of course he should attempt it. Of course he should set his jaw and put his nose to the grindstone and say: “If this is what’s necessary, this is what we’re going to do.”

The only people that can pressure a party to elevate and expand its ambitions are its own side. But in America, criticism of Biden for thinking too small is missing.

Why is that? Well, it’s because to many Americans, even, maybe especially liberals, investing a trillion dollars is reason to celebrate. After all, it looks enormous next to nothing — or negative one trillion — which is what the Republicans propose.

The celebrations from liberals, though, are premature. Investing a trillion dollars here or there will certainly help things — for a time. It will fix decrepit bridges and roads and maybe even create a few sorely necessary jobs. What it won’t do, though, is fix a failed state.

So liberals have to decide. Should they be applauding investment on a scale that looks huge and massive — but in fact falls far, far short of what’s necessary to actually transform America?

Or should they offer up a bit of constructive criticism to the Biden team? Maybe the answer is: both. Saying something like: “Hey, it’s great we finally have a team in the White House who want to invest. That’s something barely anyone can even remember. Awesome, fantastic, cool. But you know what? That’s a good start, but now there needs to be more. Here’s how big a new New Deal really would be.”

Liberals aren’t quite saying that to Team Biden yet. They don’t want to. Being critical is a line they don’t want to cross. That’s the first reason. But underneath is the deeper reason. Americans, even the good ones, tend to have no idea how big the New Deal really was.

Who can blame them? It’s not like it’s taught in high school classes. They don’t talk about in the New York Times. You have to read arcane economics papers to glean that nugget of information.

But at this juncture in American history, it’s a fact everyone should know, a number that should be on everyone’s lips. “The New Deal was about 50% of the economy. That’d be $10 trillion today. That’s the scale we’re talking if we want to transform this ruined, decrepit, failed state, and begin living like people in modern societies — Canadians, Europeans — do.”

Time is short. This is America’s one and only chance for transformation. It will not get a second. Instead, it will enter the death spiral of dying empires — from which it might, just might, have broken free for a brief, brief last desperate scramble upwards. Caligula will follow Nero will follow Commodus, and so on.

Time is short, and Americans sorely need perspective — so they can see how far, still Biden’s team falls short of the mark, despite they myth being told about it. No, this isn’t a new New Deal, and Joe isn’t a new FDR. Not yet. And that is precisely why pressure needs to be applied — while a difference can still be made. Because in a few short months, it will be too late, and America will be left with only that which has been accomplished in the wasted time we call right now.

Umair
April 2021