New Your Times 'Opinion Today': "Your Country In 2040 (The Climatological Picture)"
By Yaryna Serkez Graphics Editor, Opinion |
With President Biden in the White House, climate change is back on the agenda. Like the pandemic, the climate crisis affects almost everyone. Unlike the coronavirus, we can’t contain it with social distancing or a vaccine. There isn’t one clear path to fixing the problem. But understanding the humanitarian and economic risks we could face in the next 20 years might make us rethink our priorities. Last year we mapped the biggest climate risks in the United States; this time we’re looking at the entire world. |
We confront these potential perils because the emissions that have accumulated in the atmosphere are causing accelerating risks for the climate and the polar ice sheets. The predictions are unsettling. More frequent extreme weather is expected to increase our exposure to climate-related natural disasters. Using data from Four Twenty Seven, an environmental risk assessment firm, we found that by 2040, roughly 90 percent of the global population will live in areas with at least one high-risk climate threat. Those dangers include floods, wildfires, extreme temperatures, water scarcity, hurricanes and rising seas. About 41 percent of the global population and 57 percent of the world economy will be vulnerable to floods, while some 40 percent of people and the economy will be at high risk of water scarcity. |
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Many countries will be exposed to multiple risks. In the United States, the East Coast may be more affected by hurricanes while the West Coast may suffer from wildfires and drought, and the Midwest from extreme temperatures and floods. One way or another, roughly 80 percent of the U.S. population, economy and agriculture may be exposed. You can select your country here to see what climate hazards you could experience. |
Most of the exposed population will live in low- and middle-income countries. In those places, climate disasters will combine with poor infrastructure and a weak economy to produce challenges including crop failure, water shortages, mass migration and disease. |
Biden’s presidency marks the beginning of a renewed effort to combat climate change. On his first day, he recommitted the United States to the Paris Agreement and he has pledged to invest in the green economy. But if we don’t act soon, these disturbing projections may become reality. |
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