"How Ruth Bader Ginsburg's Death Will Bring About The Failure Of Trump-McConnell's Plan To Rush A Successor, Simultaneously Creating A Blue Tsunami In November"

 

Ruth Bader Ginsburg: Power Broker From Beyond The Grave

Dear T,

I do not pretend to any personal transformation, but as I go through the prolonged process of "settling an estate" -- and even as I look out on the political implications of RBG's death -- I find myself with a much more philosophical view, a view that assumes - right down to my soul - a couple of things.

One of those "things" is that we humans -- ALL of us -- have a powerful inclination to conservatism. 

We don't want our settled baselines to change. 

We want them to remain the same.

Yet, when upheaval presents, it routinely proves true that the eventual outcome turns out to be at least as good -- and often better -- than the comforting routine to which we had grown accustomed.

In the case of RBG, I see (and feel) real possibility that Trump-Barr-McConnell's greed-power-hunger will blind them to the political risk that Trump will lose a disproportionate number of "persuadables" -- most of them libertarians who hate authoritarianism, and independents who also swing left. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/15/facts-about-us-political-independents/

And so, if these "persuadables" are "true to form," we are likely to see many more voters "break toward Biden" and -- upon Joe's lengthened coattails -- we are likely to see unexpectedly large gains in both House and Senate.  

I also think those "purists" who have been contemplating "third party votes" -- or seizing the presumed "moral high ground" by not voting at all -- will "come around" providing even more votes for Joe.

My Criticism Of People Who Argue That It's Better To Vote For A Third Party Candidate, Or For No One At All

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2020/09/my-criticism-of-people-who-argue-that.html

RBG

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2020/09/rbg.html

In my bones, I sense that RBG's death -- coupled with Republicans' blind quest for power -- will prove advantageous for Biden, even yugely advantageous.

Although I may be overstating the case, I now foresee not just a "blue wave" but a "blue tsunami."

And even if Republicans ramrod the approval of a ring-wing Supreme Court ideologue (which will be very difficult to achieve structurally, in part because Democrats seem to have the constitutional right to prevent a senate vote right "out of the gate" by refusing to attend Judiciary Committee meetings, thus depriving that body of a functioning quorum), Joe is now likely to emerge with a big enough mandate to "pack the court" as a viable way to equalize the partisan composition of The Bench.

Plus, an indeterminate number of Republican senators cannot be counted on to vote for a Trump nominee, including these four who have already said that won't vote for Ginsburg's replacement before the election. https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/ruth-bader-ginsburg-death-live-updates/h_73403b4eaf42724ec9db79154591d223 

Democratic senatorial candidate Mark Kelly leads Arizona Republican Sen. McSally by 13%, virtually ensuring that Kelly will be seated as AZ senator by November 30th due to exceptional circumstances.

Add Murkowski, Collins and Mitt Romney to the ledger of Republican senators who will not vote for Trump's SCOTUS nominee and suddenly McConnell does not have enough votes to approve Ginsburg's replacement. 

Of course, there is no guarantee that any advantage will accrue to Biden or that GOP senators will refuse to rubber stamp Trump's nominee. 

Indeed, it is by no means certain we will avoid democracy's collapse, and the ascendancy of an authoritarian police state. 

The Corrosion Of American Democracy And The Ascendancy Of A Police State

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-corrosion-of-american-democracy-and.html

The End Of Democracy: Trump's Love For "The Poorly Educated," And Opinion Trumping Truth

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2020/07/trumps-love-for-poorly-educated-opinion.html

But uncertainty is "a given."

For what it's worth, I expect this upcoming period of upheaval to energize many more Democrats, Libertarians and Independents than Trump's Repugnican Base (which is already "all-in") so that Joe will emerge as the beneficiary - and a big beneficiary at that.

You may remember the fable of the monkey who tries to take a whole fistful of goodies from a jar - and ends up with none. https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2014/nov/14/how-to-avoid-monkey-trap-oliver-burkeman

I believe Trump - and Trump Cult's - blinding greed will be their undoing. (In a larger sense, All-American greed may be our collective undoing... but that's another story, certainly not the issue at hand.)

***

We always have "Plan B."

Is It Time For Red States And Blue States To Collaborate On The Creation Of Two Nations?

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2020/07/is-it-time-for-red-states-and-blue.html

Racism, The Division Of The United States Into Two Separate Polities (Red And Blue), And The Sudden Collapse Of The Soviet Union

https://newsfrombarbaria.blogspot.com/2020/09/racism-division-of-united-states-into.html 

Love

Alan